What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China

For decades, China has been a global economic marvel, growing at unprecedented rates and lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty.

Its meteoric rise has had ripple effects far beyond its borders, especially in developing nations like Zambia. In fact, China’s influence on the Zambian economy has been so deep-rooted that when the Chinese economy slows down, Zambia feels the pinch.

With China now showing serious signs of a post-COVID slowdown, Zambia’s future hangs in the balance. The notion that “what happens in China stays in China” could not be further from the truth.

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted economies across the globe, but nowhere was the disruption more evident than in China’s manufacturing heartlands.

While Western economies took a more liberal approach to the pandemic, China opted for an aggressive containment strategy, imposing strict lockdowns. Entire cities and production centers were effectively shut down for months.

The world soon realized how interconnected it was with China’s production prowess, as the slowdown led to major supply chain disruptions.

Zambia, like many other African nations, felt the tremors of China’s lockdown. Chinese businesses operating in Zambia, dependent on supplies from their homeland, faced severe shortages.

Some were forced to shut operations temporarily, exacerbating Zambia’s already fragile economic position. When China halts production, Zambia’s imports stop, businesses close, and jobs vanish. This was a clear testament that Zambia’s economic pulse is closely tied to China’s heartbeat.

China may be attempting to recover from the pandemic-induced economic slowdown, but experts predict this progress will be slow. As China grapples with its recovery, Zambia faces an extended economic hangover.

Compounded by Zambia’s ambiguous foreign policy and the cautious stance China has adopted since the change of administration, Chinese investments in the country have significantly tapered off.

The changing dynamics of the Zambia-China relationship post-COVID are undeniable. The scale and scope of Chinese investments in Zambia—once a bedrock of Zambia’s economic growth—has been called into question.

For a country so dependent on Chinese capital, a prolonged slowdown in Chinese investments could spell disaster.

A sluggish Chinese economy means less demand for Zambian raw materials like copper, and fewer infrastructure projects funded by Chinese firms. As China’s own economy weakens, so too does Zambia’s ability to leverage its partnership with the global giant.

Amidst this uncertain economic landscape, President Hakainde Hichilema’s recent visit to China for the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) provided a glimmer of hope.

China announced a substantial $51 billion investment package for Africa over the next five years—a significant increase from the $10 billion pledged in the previous cycle. Zambia stands to benefit from this injection of capital, particularly in critical sectors such as mining, agriculture, and energy.

Crucially, the relationship between Zambia and China was upgraded to a “comprehensive level,” signaling a potential reset in relations.

The promise to revamp the Tanzania-Zambia Railway (TAZARA), invest in solar projects, and explore additional opportunities in mining and manufacturing could potentially breathe new life into Zambia’s stagnant economy. However, the real question is whether Zambia is ready to capitalize on this opportunity.

While China’s renewed commitment to Africa is encouraging, Zambia’s long-term success depends on more than external aid and investments. To truly benefit from its relationship with China, Zambia must fundamentally rethink its approach to economic development.

The country cannot afford to remain a passive recipient of Chinese capital. Instead, Zambia needs to actively foster partnerships that promote local capacity-building, skills transfer, and the creation of homegrown industries.

China’s own economic transformation over the past four decades holds valuable lessons for Zambia. Through disciplined leadership, commitment to industrialization, and strategic partnerships, China transformed itself into the world’s second-largest economy.

Zambia can replicate this success by fostering its own industries rather than relying solely on Chinese imports and infrastructure projects. The establishment of local factories, particularly in sectors like mining and manufacturing, will not only create jobs but also spur technological advancement and skills development.

Zambia’s reliance on China has proven both a blessing and a curse. On one hand, Chinese investments have been a lifeline for Zambia’s infrastructure and mining sectors.

On the other hand, this dependency has left Zambia vulnerable to the ebbs and flows of China’s economic fortunes. To mitigate this vulnerability, Zambia must diversify its economic partnerships, both within Africa and globally.

The post-pandemic world demands that Zambia take a more strategic and self-sufficient approach. Rather than viewing China as a one-stop solution to its economic woes, Zambia should aim to establish more balanced partnerships—leveraging Chinese capital while simultaneously fostering relationships with other international players.

In doing so, Zambia can insulate itself from the shocks of a single country’s economic downturn.

The era of relying on foreign aid and investment to solve Zambia’s economic challenges is over. The country’s future hinges on the ability of its leadership to foster a resilient and diversified economy—one that can withstand the ripple effects of a slowing Chinese economy.

What happens in China most certainly does not stay in China. But with disciplined leadership, strategic partnerships, and a focus on long-term capacity-building, Zambia can mitigate the negative impacts of a global slowdown and carve out a path toward sustained economic growth.

The Chinese economic model may have delivered unprecedented progress, but it’s time for Zambia to chart its own course, leveraging Chinese investments to build a stronger, more resilient economy.

The question is no longer whether Zambia can survive China’s slowdown; the question is whether it can use this challenge to finally free itself from over-dependence and stand on its own two feet.